Plain-language methodTask-level evidence
How we estimate where AI changes the work
We start with the tasks inside a public occupation, estimate how AI may support each task, attach external evidence only when the match is explicit, and roll the task results into a broad role range. The path remains visible so the range is never the only thing you can inspect.
Role-level answer
“Work likely to change” is broader than automation
The range includes work where AI can assist with preparation, drafting, analysis, review, information handling, or execution. A task can change substantially while a person still owns the decision and outcome.
Under 30%
Lower impact
AI may affect a smaller share of the analyzed task set.
30–45%
Moderate impact
AI may change a meaningful share of preparation and execution work.
45%+
Higher impact
AI may reach many tasks, while human responsibility can still remain.
Task-level process
Four visible steps
01
Define the work
Use the complete captured public task set for the occupation.
02
Assess task change
Look at AI capability, task structure, and where human involvement still matters.
03
Match evidence
Attach public task evidence only through a direct identifier or explicit wording match.
04
Explain the result
Show a role range, task bands, plain-language reasoning, and inspectable sources.
Evidence rules
Stronger matches can support stronger claims
Strongest task match
Same public task key
The external evidence points to the same occupation and task identifier. It may inform that task's work-change view.
Supporting observed-use match
Same task wording
Observed AI use appears against equivalent task wording. It is supporting context, not proof that the whole task is automatable.
Comparison only
Role-level benchmark
The evidence describes an occupation or broad work activity. It stays visible as context and is not assigned to individual tasks.
Missing observed-use evidence is treated as missing coverage—not as a zero-impact estimate. See the source registry for dataset-specific join rules and caveats.
Limitations
What the result cannot tell you
- The analysis estimates work likely to change with AI support; it does not predict layoffs or role disappearance.
- A high task signal does not remove accountability, approval, professional judgment, or the need to check outputs.
- Public task descriptions cannot capture every employer, workflow, tool, or local policy.
- Evidence snapshots describe a point in time. Coverage and AI capability will change.
Inspect further
Follow the data, or test the method on a role.
The source registry lists datasets and retrieval versions. The Task Graph overview shows how a role, task, estimate, evidence row, and source connect in the product.