Plain-language methodTask-level evidence

How we estimate where AI changes the work

We start with the tasks inside a public occupation, estimate how AI may support each task, attach external evidence only when the match is explicit, and roll the task results into a broad role range. The path remains visible so the range is never the only thing you can inspect.

Role-level answer

“Work likely to change” is broader than automation

The range includes work where AI can assist with preparation, drafting, analysis, review, information handling, or execution. A task can change substantially while a person still owns the decision and outcome.

Under 30%

Lower impact

AI may affect a smaller share of the analyzed task set.

30–45%

Moderate impact

AI may change a meaningful share of preparation and execution work.

45%+

Higher impact

AI may reach many tasks, while human responsibility can still remain.

Task-level process

Four visible steps

  1. 01

    Define the work

    Use the complete captured public task set for the occupation.

  2. 02

    Assess task change

    Look at AI capability, task structure, and where human involvement still matters.

  3. 03

    Match evidence

    Attach public task evidence only through a direct identifier or explicit wording match.

  4. 04

    Explain the result

    Show a role range, task bands, plain-language reasoning, and inspectable sources.

Evidence rules

Stronger matches can support stronger claims

Strongest task match

Same public task key

The external evidence points to the same occupation and task identifier. It may inform that task's work-change view.

Supporting observed-use match

Same task wording

Observed AI use appears against equivalent task wording. It is supporting context, not proof that the whole task is automatable.

Comparison only

Role-level benchmark

The evidence describes an occupation or broad work activity. It stays visible as context and is not assigned to individual tasks.

Missing observed-use evidence is treated as missing coverage—not as a zero-impact estimate. See the source registry for dataset-specific join rules and caveats.

Limitations

What the result cannot tell you

  • The analysis estimates work likely to change with AI support; it does not predict layoffs or role disappearance.
  • A high task signal does not remove accountability, approval, professional judgment, or the need to check outputs.
  • Public task descriptions cannot capture every employer, workflow, tool, or local policy.
  • Evidence snapshots describe a point in time. Coverage and AI capability will change.

Inspect further

Follow the data, or test the method on a role.

The source registry lists datasets and retrieval versions. The Task Graph overview shows how a role, task, estimate, evidence row, and source connect in the product.